In the matter of one week - seven short days - outside can change up and down 40 degrees. It can move from dangerous storms to beautiful, low humidity days. Shorts, long sleeves, rain gear and a sun hat are all appropriate wear on such days. If you wait an hour it will change.
According to some studies the actual prediction of future weather is less than one out of three chances of being correct. The further out - more than 24 hours - the prediction the less likely will be the success rate. Now that is an almost perfect job- being right less than a third of the time and people still listen to you.
But what about weather ( limited of course) being your Personal Project or Extended Essay topic. The summer is an interesting three month study or going to the end of the year a a six month study. There are books to read, people to interview and live conditions to watch. What makes for a reliable prediction? Are there any good weather person jokes? Why and how did that famous TV weather person get his/her position?
While sitting at the lake or catching some rays or a break from a good book, you could be making a journal entry about the weather. Your Personal Project.
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